Talk:Dragon Forged Equipment/@comment-50.148.26.78-20131224204913/@comment-3498155-20140226122222

^ 18% isn't that bad - it's just shy of 20%, or roughly 1-in-5 chance. To fail to get it 1,000 times in a row is practically impossible.

Given a chance of failure of 80%, 2 consecutive failures is .8 x .8 = .64, 3 failures = .512, 4 failures = .4096. By 3 attempts alone you already have a near-50% chance of success, and by 10 attempts it's touching 90%.

I wouldn't waste my time on a 1-star 2% attempt though, for obvious reasons: 2% is considerably lower than 18%, taking around 34 consecutive attempts for a 50% chance of success.